In the past few months, the polyester staple fiber market has been cold and clear, and compared with last year, it can be said that it is a different day. Almost all the manufacturers before were wait and see attitudes, and the actual transaction volume was small, waiting for the arrival of September. It is already in mid-September. Let's see if the market for polyester staple fiber will rise as much as everyone expects.
Saudi Arabia promises to resume production by the end of the month
Close to recovering 70% of the loss of 5.7 million barrels per day, oil production will fully recover in the next 2-3 weeks, and the recovery rate is faster than originally expected. After the announcement, US and Cloth oil fell 6%; the PTA and MEG markets will be affected.
Oil prices continue to retreat, after the Saudi energy minister said that the oil supply has been restored to the level before the attack. Although Saudi oil facilities have been attacked, crude oil will be supplied to these refineries in full in October, with an average oil production of 9.89 million barrels per day in September and October.
Fundamental benefit is limited
As a petroleum derivative, PTA and ethylene glycol futures also rose sharply. The stock of polyester staple fiber enterprises was relatively low. Thanks to this news, the price of straight-spun polyester staple fiber enterprises rose by 100-300 yuan/ton on Monday morning. .
However, in the following week, the polyester staple fiber market can only be maintained in the short term. The reason for the market's rise is due to the sharp increase in crude oil, but it is worth noting the question of when to resume production in Saudi Arabia. At present, all parties still have different opinions. In addition, the United States may release strategic oil reserves at any time, and the increase in oil prices may be suppressed in the later period;
From a fundamental point of view, although the current inventory of polyester staple fiber is low, the high start of polyester also has a strong boost to the raw material end, but the demand side has not been fundamentally improved. In addition, the future PTA and PX still have new production expectations, and the fundamentals The benefits are limited, and the sustainability of this upswing may not last long.
The market supply is plentiful and difficult to rise.
PTA's current processing fees are still plentiful, and the overhaul time of large factories may continue to be postponed, while the time for the new equipment to be put into production is approaching, the market supply is plentiful, and the cost end support is limited, while the polyester staple fiber is replenished after the centralized shipment at the beginning of the week. The enthusiasm is difficult to maintain, and the terminal market has no substantial improvement. Some spinning mills face the phenomenon of holiday during the National Day, so there is a strong resistance to the supply after the rise.
In summary: PTA and ethylene glycol futures continue to fall, and more downstream have been stocked in advance, and a few yarn mills and weaving mills have a short-term plan for the National Day holiday, demand support is weak, and the polyester staple fiber market is expected to be partially high today. There is a possibility of a negative supply.